METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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Half a composite point separates a southpaw puncher with a chin rating of 0.0 from a submission grappler who taps people in round one.
The composite ratings say almost nothing here. Chris Duncan's 60.4 and Drew Dober's 59.9 are separated by 0.5 points, the second-tightest gap on the card behind only Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes. Everything interesting is in the shape of the two fighters, and the shapes could hardly be more different. Dober is a puncher and nothing else. His 8.49 striking score and 7.33 pressure put him among …
Dober (29-15) is 2-3 in his last five but has won his last two by knockout, over Kyle Prepolec and Michael Johnson. Before that he lost to Manuel Torres (first-round KO/TKO), Jean Silva and Renato Moicano (decision). He is 38 on fight night with 26 recorded UFC fights, and his chin rating has bottomed out at 0.0.
Duncan (15-3) is 4-1 in his last five, with submissions of Bolaji Oki, Jordan Vucenic and Terrance McKinney and a decision over Mateusz Rebecki before a second-round submission loss to Renato Moicano in April. He is 33 on fight night with eight recorded UFC fights. His chin rating is a sturdy 76.0.
The second-closest composite gap on the card, 0.5 points: which style breaks the tie?
Dober's 8.49 striking against Duncan's 1.5 — can Duncan get in without being hit?
Duncan's 5.0 submission score against Dober's 0.67
Common opponent Renato Moicano beat both men, Dober on points and Duncan by submission
Dober's 0.0 chin rating at 38 against Duncan's 76.0
Duncan's 1.5 striking score means every entry is a gamble against a man who has knocked out his last two opponents
Dober's 100.0 momentum could be telling the truth about a late-career resurgence
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10