METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Combatrics Intelligence
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Julian Erosa's chin rating has fallen to zero, and he is fighting a man returning from seventeen months out with the higher quality-of-victory score on the card.
Julian Erosa has been in thirty-one professional wins and eighteen recorded UFC fights, and the ledger has finally caught up with him. His chin rating reads 0.0. Lerryan Douglas knocked him out at 3:33 of the first round in March 2026, and at 37 the model does not expect that to reverse. His momentum score reads 26.0, and the only figures below it in this pack belong to two men with no rated win b…
Erosa (31-14) is 3-2 in his last five, but the two defeats are recent: a first-round knockout by Lerryan Douglas in March 2026 and a decision to Melquizael Costa in May 2025. At 37 he has eighteen recorded UFC fights, a finish rate of 0.67, and a chin rating of 0.0 — the floor of the scale.
Lee (11-3) has four recorded UFC fights and is 2-2 across them, with decision wins over Blake Bilder and Yizha and defeats to Daniel Santos by decision and Hyder Amil by first-round knockout. He is 30, has not fought since May 2025 — roughly seventeen months — and his 62.5 quality-of-victory is comfortably the better of the two.
A chin rating of 0.0 for Erosa, and whether a 1.00 striking score is enough to exploit it
Erosa's 4.44 submission score against Lee's 0.0, with two first-round submissions in his last five
Lee has not fought since May 2025 — roughly seventeen months out
A 9.0 volume score against a 6.17 pressure rating: throughput versus forward movement
Lee's 62.5 quality-of-victory off four fights against Erosa's 43.7 off eighteen
Erosa finishes people: 0.67 finish rate, three first-round stoppages in his last five, and Lee has already been knocked out inside 65 seconds once
Seventeen months of inactivity for Lee is entirely unpriced in the 56.2 composite
Lee's 1.00 striking score means he may not have the power to punish a chin rated at zero
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10