METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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A grappler eighteen months out of the cage against a 23-year-old debutant who waited more than a year to use the contract he won.
Two awkward profiles. Evan Elder has not fought in eighteen months. Samuel Sanches has not fought in the UFC at all, having won a contract in September 2025 and spent more than a year waiting to use it. Neither man arrives with momentum in any ordinary sense, and the database can only see one of them. What it sees in Elder is a grappler. His 4.27 grappling score and 3.33 submission rating are the…
Elder (10-2) is 3-2 across his last five and last competed on 26 April 2025, a decision over Gauge Young — an eighteen-month layoff by fight night. Five UFC appearances, with an arm-triangle submission of Darrius Flowers his best finish. His 96.0 chin rating reflects never having been knocked out; the Sadykhov loss in 2023 was a third-round doctor's stoppage. He is 29.
Sanches (11-1) makes his UFC debut and has no recorded fights in this database — no composite rating, no chin rating, no style scores. He earned his contract on 9 September 2025 by knocking out Chasen Blair in 2:01 of the first round, having arrived on a seven-fight winning streak with five knockouts. He is 23, fights out of Salvador, Bahia with Galpão da Luta, and has waited over a year for this booking.
Sanches is a debutant with no recorded data — the model is working with one fighter's numbers, not two
Elder's eighteen-month layoff, the longest of his career
Elder's 1.20 striking score against five knockouts in Sanches's last seven fights
Elder's 4.27 grappling and 3.33 submission against a man who escaped a back-take to win his contract
Five centimetres of reach and six years of age, both to Sanches
Sanches has no UFC record, so any pick here is partly guesswork and the stated confidence is low for that reason
Eighteen months out is long enough to cost Elder a round of timing, and his game needs timing to close distance
Elder has beaten Gauge Young, Darrius Flowers and Genaro Valdez — a modest set, and his 33.2 quality-of-victory says so
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10