Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Las Vegas, USA

7 Nov 2026

Women's Flyweight

67%

Silva

33%

Fernandes

High confidence · Silva 67%

⚡ ML Model

Karine Silva

"Killer"

19 – 7

5'5"67" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 59

Gabriella Fernandes

"Gabi"

11 – 4

Well-Rounded33 yrsSouthpaw66" reach5'6"

CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Silva

A finisher who has stopped scoring finishes meets a volume fighter who was knocked out in seconds last time, and both need a win badly.

Karine Silva earned the nickname by finishing people. Five of her nineteen wins are reflected in a 0.60 finish rate and a submission score of 6.00 — the highest in this fight — and yet her last five recorded outings have all gone to the judges, and she has lost three of them. The recent sequence is unforgiving. Jasmine Jasudavicius outpointed her in April, Maycee Barber outpointed her in December…

Silva intel

Silva (19-7) has lost three of her last five, all on the cards, most recently to Jasmine Jasudavicius in April and Maycee Barber in December. At 32 her chin rating is 94.0 and her 6.00 submission score is the highest figure in this bout, but none of her last five recorded fights ended early.

Fernandes intel

Fernandes (11-4) was stopped by Casey O'Neill in the first round in March, her only recorded stoppage loss, and her chin rating of 74.0 reflects it. Before that she had won three straight, including a second-round submission of Wang Cong in November 2024. At 33 she is the older woman by a year.

Key angles

Silva's 0.60 finish rate against five straight recorded fights that all reached the judges

Fernandes's 74.0 chin after the first-round O'Neill knockout in March

A 6.33 volume score against 4.45 — the same range game that beat Silva three times

Silva's 6.00 submission score against a woman who has been taken down and controlled before

Both need this: a combined 2-3 and 3-2 in their last five with neither trending upward

Risk flags

Silva has not finished anyone in her recorded five and has lost the last three decisions she contested at range

Fernandes's 6.33 volume is the exact tool Jasudavicius and Barber used, and Silva's answer to it has not worked yet

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Silva

Fernandes

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"

Height

+5'6"

67"+

Reach

66"

32+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Silva

Fernandes

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

59.1

41.4

50.4

Performance Avg

39.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Silva

Fernandes

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

1.3

/ 10

1.0

/ 10

6.1

Style: Pressure

3.8

4.5

Style: Volume

6.3

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Silva

Fernandes

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

5.8

/ 10

4.3

/ 10

4.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.0

6.0

Submission Style (/10)

3.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Silva

Fernandes

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

9/26 fights

Chin rating based on

7/15 fights

Silva

Fernandes

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

Silva

Fernandes

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

60%

33%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Silva

Fernandes

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.0

5.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.3

4.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

6.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.3

6.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.8

4.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.3

Silva

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Fernandes

Silva

Attacking

101 landed

Absorbing

114 absorbed

Fernandes

Attacking

92 landed

Absorbing

191 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Silva targets the head (42% of attacks) — Fernandes absorbs 62% of strikes there

🎯Fernandes targets the head (63% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 48% of strikes there

Silva · Last 5

Upcoming

Gabriella Fernandes

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · 2026-11

L · Dec · R3

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04

L · Dec · R3

Maycee Barber

Decision

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Dione Barbosa

Decision

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Viviane Araujo

Decision

UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

Fernandes · Last 5

Upcoming

Karine Silva

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · 2026-11

L · KO · R1

Casey O'Neill

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Julija Stoliarenko

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

W · Sub · R2

Wang Cong

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11

W · Dec · R3

Carli Judice

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

News & Media

Karine Silva · Gabriella Fernandes

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