Bia Mesquita vs Macy Chiasson — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

New York City, USA

14 Nov 2026

Women's Bantamweight

60%

Mesquita

40%

Chiasson

High confidence · Mesquita 60%

⚡ ML Model

Bia Mesquita

"The Lady GOAT"

8 – 0

5'4"67" reachOrthodox35 yrs3-fight win streakSubmission Hunter

CFR 80

Macy Chiasson

11 – 6

Well-Rounded3-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"

CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Mesquita

Bia Mesquita has submitted all three UFC opponents; Macy Chiasson brings 17.7cm of height, three straight decision losses and a real question about the floor.

This is a test of whether Bia Mesquita's grappling travels to an opponent who is nearly a head taller. The Brazilian is 7-0 with three UFC wins, all by submission, and her 79.6 composite rating is the third-highest on the card — behind only Bilal Hasan and Yousri Belgaroui. Macy Chiasson stands 180.3cm to Mesquita's 162.6cm, a 17.7cm difference, and has 182.9cm of reach against 170.2cm. The whole …

Mesquita intel

Mesquita (7-0) has submitted all three recorded UFC opponents — Irina Alekseeva, Montse Rendon and Melissa Mullins — two of them in the first round. She is 35 on fight night, and her 79.6 composite and 52.5 quality-of-victory come from a three-fight sample.

Chiasson intel

Chiasson (11-6) has 14 recorded UFC fights but has lost her last three on the scorecards, to Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez. Her last win was over Mayra Bueno Silva at UFC 303 in June 2024; she is also 35, a few months younger than Mesquita.

Key angles

Can Chiasson's 17.7cm height edge and 12.7cm reach edge keep Mesquita at the end of a jab

Mesquita's 10.0 submission score against Chiasson's 2.9 grappling

Three straight decision losses — Chiasson has gone the distance but not won

Mesquita has never gone past round two in a recorded fight

Chiasson's 4.14 volume against Mesquita's 2.0 if the takedowns do not land

Risk flags

Mesquita's rating rests on three fights against opposition well below Chiasson's level

If Chiasson stuffs the early entries, Mesquita's 2.0 striking gives her little to fall back on

A long, tall opponent who can frame and stand up is exactly the style that could expose a three-fight sample

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Mesquita

Chiasson

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"

Height

+5'11"

67"

Reach

+72"

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Mesquita

Chiasson

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

79.6

61.5

71.5

Performance Avg

53.0

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mesquita

Chiasson

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

2.0

/ 10

3.6

/ 10

10.0

Style: Pressure

5.2

2.0

Style: Volume

4.1

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mesquita

Chiasson

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

8.0

/ 10

2.9

/ 10

5.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.0

10.0

Submission Style (/10)

2.5

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mesquita

Chiasson

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

4/8 fights

Chin rating based on

15/17 fights

Mesquita

Chiasson

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 📉 slide

Upcoming

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · R2

Mesquita

Chiasson

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mesquita

Chiasson

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.6

8.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.9

5.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.0

10.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

10.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.2

2.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.1

Mesquita

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Chiasson

Mesquita

Attacking

21 landed

Absorbing

13 absorbed

Chiasson

Attacking

157 landed

Absorbing

105 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mesquita targets the head (86% of attacks) — Chiasson absorbs 66% of strikes there

🎯Chiasson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Mesquita absorbs 69% of strikes there

Mesquita · Last 4

Upcoming

Macy Chiasson

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · 2026-11

W · Sub · R1

Melissa Mullins

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Sub · R1

Montse Rendon

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

W · Sub · R2

Irina Alekseeva

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

Chiasson · Last 5

Upcoming

Bia Mesquita

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit · 2026-11

L · Dec · R3

Ailin Perez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Yana Santos

Decision

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10

L · Dec · R3

Ketlen Vieira

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05

W · R2

Mayra Bueno Silva

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

News & Media

Bia Mesquita · Macy Chiasson

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