METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Combatrics Intelligence
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Kayla Harrison's first title defence meets Amanda Nunes's return from more than three years away, and the model separates them by 0.3 of a point.
The model cannot split them, and that is the most honest thing about this fight. Kayla Harrison's 77.9 composite and Amanda Nunes's 77.6 are separated by 0.3 of a point — the narrowest gap on the card. But those two numbers are not measuring the same thing. Harrison's is built on three recorded fights, the latest in June 2025. Nunes's is built on 18, and the most recent of them was in June 2023. …
Harrison (19-1) is 3-0 across three recorded UFC fights: Holly Holm by submission, Ketlen Vieira by decision, and Julianna Peña by second-round submission at UFC 316 for the title. She is 36 on fight night and making her first defence, having withdrawn from the original UFC 324 date for surgery. Three fights is a small sample, but all three are recent.
Nunes (23-5) returns after more than three years away; her last fight was a decision over Irene Aldana at UFC 289 in June 2023. Her last five reads 4-1, the loss a submission to Julianna Peña at UFC 269, and she has 18 recorded fights. She is 38 on fight night, and every metric attached to her predates the layoff.
How much of Nunes's 75.2 performance average survives more than three years out, at 38
Can Harrison close 7.7cm of reach to get her hands on Nunes
Nunes's 6.15 striking against Harrison's 2.0 in the opening exchanges
Harrison's 6.67 submission score against a fighter whose one recent loss was a submission
Harrison's own layoff since June 2025 and surgery — does it narrow her activity edge
Nunes's stale metrics could flatter Harrison as easily as her — if Nunes is still the fighter of 2022, her striking is a real problem
The composites are 0.3 apart; the pick rests on judgment about layoffs rather than the model's headline number
Harrison has three recorded fights, and the model has little on how she handles sustained damage on the feet
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10