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Two chin ratings of exactly 54.0, two striking scores above 9.2, nineteen knockouts between them in twenty-five recorded fights, and five rounds scheduled that neither man has any history of needing.
Pereira is 0-1 at heavyweight. Ciryl Gane knocked him out in the second round of an interim title fight at UFC Freedom 250 in June, in his first appearance above 205lb, and the UFC's answer is to give him the hardest single-punch puncher in the division over five rounds. The aggregate ratings are not close. Pereira's composite is 73.3 to Pavlovich's 63.5, and the gap widens on quality of victory:…
Pavlovich (20-3) arrives on a three-fight winning streak, most recently a thirty-nine-second knockout of Tallison Teixeira in May 2026. His composite rating is 63.5, quality-of-victory 53.3, finish rate 0.778 and chin rating 54.0. Nine of his twelve recorded fights ended in a knockout and he won seven of them; he has been stopped twice, by Tom Aspinall in sixty-nine seconds at UFC 295 and by Alistair Overeem in 2018. His only non-stoppage defeat is a decision to Alexander Volkov in June 2024. He has never fought past the third round. He is 190.5cm with a 213.4cm reach, southpaw, and is 34.
Pereira (13-3) is 0-1 at heavyweight after Ciryl Gane knocked him out in the second round of an interim title fight at UFC Freedom 250 in June. His composite rating is 73.3, quality-of-victory 71.8, performance average 73.8, finish rate 0.80 and chin rating 54.0. Ten of his thirteen recorded fights ended in a knockout and he won eight, among them Jiri Prochazka twice, Jamahal Hill, Khalil Rountree Jr. and a 1:20 finish of Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 320. He has been stopped twice, both in the second round: by Adesanya in 2023 and by Gane in June. He is 193.0cm with a 200.7cm reach, orthodox, and is 39.
Both chin ratings read exactly 54.0, and both men have been stopped twice inside two rounds
Pavlovich's 213.4cm reach against 200.7cm, southpaw against orthodox, in a fight that is pure striking
Pereira's 71.8 quality-of-victory against 53.3 — his knockouts came against champions, Pavlovich's did not
Zero recorded takedown attempts and zero submission attempts between them across twenty-five fights
Five rounds scheduled, and Pavlovich has never fought past the third
Pereira is 0-1 at heavyweight and was knocked out in his only appearance there, four months before this
Nineteen knockouts in twenty-five recorded fights means one clean shot settles it, and no rating can tell you whose lands first
Pereira's 73.3 composite was built almost entirely at light heavyweight — the heavyweight sample is a single knockout defeat
Pavlovich's 53.3 quality-of-victory means the three-fight streak behind him came against opposition the model rates poorly
A thirty-nine-year-old coming off a knockout loss is the hardest situation in the sport to price, and the metrics do not try
Pavlovich has never been asked for a fourth or fifth round, so his conditioning at championship distance is entirely unmeasured
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