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Two of the most fragile chins in the division, 32.0 against 26.0, and a man who has not won a fight in over five years returning from almost two years out and a medical withdrawal — in a new weight class.
This is a fight between two men the model rates almost identically — 51.7 and 50.1 — who have arrived at that number by completely different routes, and whose shared weakness is the same one. Both chins are broken. Reese's rating is 32.0, Gall's 26.0, and across the pair there are six knockout defeats. Reese has been stopped by Cody Brundage on debut, by Azamat Bekoev (60.6) at 3:04 of the first …
Reese (10-3, 1 NC) is 32, from Houston and fighting out of Shiner, Texas with WAR Training Center, nicknamed Savage. Composite 51.7 on a 43.9 performance average across eight recorded UFC fights — the gap between those two figures says the rating is flattering him slightly. Style scores are even and unremarkable: 3.5 striking, 5.0 pressure, 5.0 volume, 3.2 grappling, 2.24 wrestling, 2.5 submission, with a 50 per cent finish rate and a 39.9 quality-of-victory. He earned his contract with a first-round armbar at Dana White's Contender Series in August 2023, lost his debut to Cody Brundage by knockout, and owns two Performance of the Night bonuses — a 20-second TKO of Julian Marquez and a rear-naked choke of Jackson McVey (61.6) at 1:38 of the second in November 2025. The weakness is durability: a 32.0 chin rating built on three first-round knockout defeats in four losses, to Brundage, to Azamat Bekoev (60.6) at 3:04 and to Ryan Gandra (82.8) at 1:15 in July 2026. Recent form reads L, L, W, W, L — he has not won in 2026, having dropped a split decision to Michel Pereira (46.0) in February. His September 2025 meeting with Sedriques Dumas was ruled a no contest after an accidental groin kick. Fade index 100.0. Height 193.0cm, reach 195.6cm, switch stance.
Gall (7-7) is 34, from Green Brook, New Jersey, and this is his first fight since 16 November 2024 and his first at middleweight after thirteen recorded welterweight bouts. Composite 50.1 on a 47.5 performance average with a 48.4 quality-of-victory, the better of the two here. The style profile is the most lopsided in the bout: 8.33 submission and 7.07 grappling, both the highest figures on either sheet, 4.95 wrestling and 7.22 pressure, against 0.92 striking and 2.26 volume. That reflects reality — he is a BJJ black belt under David Adiv with NAGA and Grapplers Quest titles, holds a blue belt in Muay Thai under Kaensak Sor.Ploenjit, and six of his seven career wins are submissions, including the rear-naked choke of CM Punk at UFC 203 in September 2016 and finishes of Mike Jackson, Sage Northcutt and George Sullivan. Randy Brown, also on this card, beat him by unanimous decision in November 2017. His finish rate is 0.833. Against that: his last win was on 24 July 2021 over Jordan Williams (2.8), and he has since lost to Alex Morono (35.0), Mike Malott (72.2) by first-round knockout, Bassil Hafez (27.7) and Ramiz Brahimaj (57.1) by first-round knockout — four straight, over five years without a victory. His chin rating is 26.0, the lower of the two, from three knockout defeats across seven losses. He was pulled from a 26 September 2026 bout with Sedriques Dumas two days out on medical grounds and has since been medically cleared. Fade index 100.0. Height 188.0cm, reach 188.0cm, switch stance.
Gall has not won a fight since 24 July 2021 — over five years — and that win came against an opponent rated 2.8
This is Gall's first fight in almost two years and his first ever at middleweight, at 34
Gall was pulled from a 26 September bout with Sedriques Dumas two days out on medical grounds, and has since been cleared
Gall's 8.33 submission and 7.07 grappling are the highest figures in the bout; his 0.92 striking is near zero
A BJJ black belt under David Adiv with six submissions in seven career wins, including the rear-naked choke of CM Punk at UFC 203
Reese's chin rating is 32.0 — three of his four career defeats are first-round knockouts
Reese was knocked out by Ryan Gandra (82.8) at 1:15 of the first in July, three and a half months before this
Gall's chin is worse still at 26.0, with three knockout defeats including Brahimaj at 2:55 of the first in his last outing
Reese has the frame: 193.0cm and 195.6cm of reach against 188.0cm and 188.0cm, and both men switch stance
Reese's no contest with Sedriques Dumas in September 2025 came from an accidental groin kick — the same opponent Gall was later booked against
Gall needs one grip and the fight is over — a black belt's submission game is the skill least damaged by two years out
Reese's 32.0 chin and ordinary 2.24 wrestling score are exactly the profile a submission specialist wants in front of him
Reese has not won in 2026 and is coming off a first-round knockout defeat only months ago
Six knockout defeats between the two men means almost any clean exchange could end it either way
Gall's long layoff and medical withdrawal are genuine unknowns no rating captures — he may be sharper or markedly worse
Moving up to middleweight at 34 after thirteen welterweight bouts may add power or may simply add a size disadvantage
Reese's 3.5 striking is unremarkable in absolute terms, so he may not be able to punish a 0.92 striking score as cleanly as the gap suggests
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