METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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A submission threat on a three-fight run against a newcomer whose 78.5 rating comes from exactly one knockout.
Lucas Fernando has the higher rating in this fight and it should be ignored, or at least heavily discounted. His 78.5 composite, 100.0 chin and 100.0 momentum all derive from one recorded UFC appearance: a third-round knockout of Rafael Tobias in August. One fight cannot tell you whether a light heavyweight is elite or merely better than the man in front of him that night. What it does tell you i…
Elekana (10-2) has won three in a row — a second-round submission of Junior Tafa in January, a first-round submission of Kevin Christian in November, and a decision over Ibo Aslan in July 2025 — after Bogdan Guskov submitted him in January 2025. At 31 his composite reads 66.3 with a 98.3 momentum score across four recorded fights.
Fernando (14-3) has one recorded fight: a third-round knockout of Rafael Tobias in August 2026. That single result carries his 78.5 composite, 100.0 chin rating and 1.00 finish rate, so none of those figures should be read as settled. At 29 he brings 203.2cm of reach, the longest in this matchup by three inches.
Fernando's 78.5 composite comes from one fight — how much of it survives a second
Elekana's 6.67 submission score against an opponent with no recorded grappling whatsoever
A three-inch reach gap, 203.2cm to 195.6cm, at identical height
Elekana's only recorded loss came by submission to Bogdan Guskov, not by strikes
Fernando's 10.0 pressure against a man who has finished two of his last three on the mat
Fernando's grappling zeros reflect missing data, not a missing skill; if he stuffs the takedowns his striking edge is enormous
Elekana's 1.50 striking score means every second spent at range is a second he is losing
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10