METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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A 23.6-point composite gap, the widest on the card, and the 37-year-old on the wrong side of it owns every grappling number in the fight.
Kevin Vallejos is 24 years old and has not yet been beaten in the UFC. Four recorded fights, four wins: Josh Emmett knocked out in 3:33 of round one in March, Giga Chikadze in 1:29 of round two in December 2025, SeungWoo Choi in 3:09 of round one before that, and a decision over Danny Silva in between. His 71.5 performance average is the highest figure on this card and his 77.8 composite the secon…
Sterling (26-5) is 3-1 since moving to featherweight, all four of those fights going to the cards, most recently a decision over Youssef Zalal in April. His 23 recorded UFC fights are the third-deepest file on the card, behind Dan Hooker's and Jake Matthews's, and his 6.45 volume score is healthy, but his 2.68 striking, 4.68 pressure, 0.33 finish rate and 38.2 quality-of-victory all sit in the bottom few on the card. At 37 he is the second-oldest fighter on it, and his 50.0 chin rating dates from the O'Malley knockout.
Vallejos (18-1) is 4-0 in recorded UFC fights with three knockouts — Josh Emmett in 3:33 of round one in March, Giga Chikadze in 1:29 of round two in December 2025, SeungWoo Choi in 3:09 of round one. His 71.5 performance average is a card high, his 77.8 composite second only to Tahir Abdullayev's, and his chin and momentum both read 100.0. Four fights is a thin base for those numbers, and his 0.42 wrestling score is the obvious place to attack him.
A 23.6 composite gap, the widest of the nine bouts in Doha
Sterling's 3.24 grappling against a 0.42 wrestling score that has never been tested
A 50.0 chin rating against a 9.5 striker with a 0.75 finish rate
12.3 years between them, the widest age gap on the card
All four of Sterling's featherweight fights went to the judges; three of Vallejos's four did not
Four recorded fights is a thin base for a 77.8 composite, and a 52.5 qov says the names Vallejos has beaten were past their peak
Sterling's 23 fights of championship-level experience is the one thing the composite cannot price, and he has gone five hard rounds twice in the last two years
If the first takedown lands cleanly, Vallejos has no recorded answer off his back at all
Sterling's 6.45 volume keeps him busy enough to steal rounds without ever hurting anybody
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10