METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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A chin rating of 0.0 against a chin rating of 94.0, and the only man in the division with seventeen submission wins meeting a featherweight who has never been held down.
Oliveira won the BMF belt by outpointing Max Holloway over five rounds at UFC 326 in March, and the UFC has given him the kind of challenger that makes the title worth its name: a featherweight who knocks people out, moving up ten pounds to try. The headline numbers refuse to separate them. Oliveira's composite rating is 63.3, Lopes's 62.9. Performance averages of 58.6 and 57.5. Quality-of-victor…
Oliveira (37-11) holds the BMF title after a five-round decision over Max Holloway at UFC 326 on 7 March 2026. His composite rating is 63.3, quality-of-victory 51.4, finish rate 0.84, and his chin rating is 0.0 — the lowest the model issues. Across thirty-seven recorded fights he has won seventeen by submission, a division record, and been stopped nine times: five by strikes and four by submission. He is 3-2 across his last five, the defeats a first-round knockout by Ilia Topuria at UFC 317 and a decision to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. He is 177.8cm with a 188.0cm reach, orthodox, and turns 37 in October.
Lopes (27-8) moves up from featherweight on the back of a second-round knockout of Steve Garcia at UFC Freedom 250 in June. His composite rating is 62.9, quality-of-victory 49.1, finish rate 0.714 and chin rating 94.0 — he has never been stopped in ten recorded fights. Four of those ten ended in a knockout and he won every one. Both of his defeats are five-round decisions to Alexander Volkanovski, at UFC 314 and UFC 325, so he has twenty-five minutes of championship experience twice over without having been hurt out of a fight. He is 180.3cm with a 182.9cm reach, orthodox, and is 31.
Chin rating 0.0 against 94.0 — the widest durability gap on the card, and Lopes won all four of his knockout fights
Oliveira's 6.80 submission score and seventeen submission wins against a man with a 1.43 submission rating and no record of being tested on the floor
Composites of 63.3 and 62.9 — four tenths apart, with a champion facing someone moving up a division
Lopes has already fought ten championship rounds, both against Volkanovski, without being hurt into a stoppage
Oliveira turns 37 in October and carries thirty-seven recorded fights; Lopes is 31 with ten
Lopes's first UFC appearance above featherweight, so the effect of the weight move on his speed and power is unmeasured
A 0.4 composite gap is noise — the model cannot separate these two on aggregate ratings and the pick rests entirely on the chin and striking columns
Oliveira's chin rating of 0.0 includes four submission defeats, so it overstates how fragile he is specifically against punches
Lopes's 94.0 durability has never been examined by a grappler, and one scramble is all Oliveira has historically needed
No data exists on how Lopes performs at lightweight — the entire ratings profile was built at featherweight
Twenty-five minutes favours the fighter with the deeper finishing toolkit, and that is Oliveira in every phase except punching
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10