METRICS GUIDE
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Brown's chin rating is 4.0 out of 100 — the lowest figure on the card — and he is facing a man who has finished all four of his UFC opponents, three of them in the first round, on twelve days' notice.
Randy Brown has been in the UFC since January 2016 and has 22 recorded fights in the promotion. Jacobe Smith has four, and he had one of them three and a half weeks before this. That gap — in experience, in mileage, in what each man has already spent — is the fight. Start with the number that decides it. Brown's chin rating is 4.0. The model builds that figure from stoppage defeats, and Brown's l…
Brown (20-8) is 36 on the night, Jamaican-born and fighting out of New York with Team Renzo Gracie, nicknamed Rudeboy. Composite 52.9 on a 48.7 performance average, so the rating is steady rather than propped up by a single result, and his 22 recorded UFC fights since January 2016 make it the best-evidenced number in the bout. Style scores read 4.13 striking, 5.41 pressure, 5.27 volume, 2.91 grappling, 2.04 wrestling, 2.14 submission — a rangy, busy welterweight rather than a specialist, with a 50 per cent finish rate and two submission wins on record. The figure that dominates everything else is a 4.0 chin rating, close to the floor of the scale: three knockout defeats, two by submission, eight losses in all. His 38.8 quality-of-victory is the lowest of the two men here. Recent form is poor and specific — a decision loss to Kevin Holland (47.0) in April 2026, a second-round knockout defeat to Gabriel Bonfim (67.8) at 1:40 in November 2025 in a five-round main event bearing his own name, a second-round knockout of Nicolas Dalby (41.4) in April 2025, a decision loss to Bryan Battle (63.5) in December 2024, a decision win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (45.3) in June 2024. That is 2-3 across his last five and no win in eighteen months. Fade index 100.0. Height 190.5cm, reach 198.1cm, orthodox.
Smith (12-0 in the database, reported 13-0) is 30, from Oklahoma, nicknamed Cobe, and takes the co-main on twelve days' notice as a replacement for the injured Carlos Leal. Composite 81.7 on a 74.4 performance average, with a 100.0 chin rating, a 100.0 fade index and a finish rate of 1.000. Every one of those comes from four UFC fights, and the context is the whole story: Preston Parsons (29.0) knocked out at 1:13 of the first in January 2025, Niko Price (51.1) submitted at 4:03 of the second in June 2025, Josiah Harrell (4.5) knocked out at 3:01 of the first in February 2026, Bruce Whitehead (6.2) knocked out at 1:32 of the first on 3 October 2026. Two of those four opponents are rated in single figures, which is why his 57.4 quality-of-victory is the lowest figure he carries and the most honest one. Style scores are lopsided in a way that reads clearly: 9.5 striking and a maximum 10.0 pressure against 2.0 grappling, 1.4 wrestling, 2.5 submission and 2.0 volume — a front-foot finisher, not an accumulator. He has never been past the second round in the UFC and has never faced an opponent rated above 51.1. This is his second Octagon appearance inside four weeks. Height 177.8cm, reach 182.9cm, southpaw.
Brown's 4.0 chin rating is near the floor of the scale — three knockout defeats and two submission losses in 22 recorded UFC fights
Smith has finished all four UFC opponents, three in the first round, and has never seen a third round
Smith's 10.0 pressure score is the maximum the model awards; his 9.5 striking leads the bout by over five points
Smith's four opponents are rated 29.0, 51.1, 4.5 and 6.2 — his 57.4 quality-of-victory is the honest figure
Smith is in on twelve days' notice for the injured Carlos Leal, and fighting for the second time in four weeks
Brown holds a six-inch reach advantage, 198.1cm to 182.9cm, the widest gap on the card
Brown was knocked out at 1:40 of the second by Gabriel Bonfim (67.8) in his own five-round main event in November 2025
No win for Brown since April 2025; 2-3 across his recorded last five at 36 years old
Orthodox against southpaw, so the lead-hand and lead-foot battle decides whether the reach advantage is usable
Brown has 22 recorded UFC fights to Smith's four — eighteen fights of experience against a prospect's thin sample
Smith's entire rating rests on four fights, two against opponents rated in single figures — the step up is real and untested
A twelve-day camp and a second fight inside four weeks are the kind of variables ratings cannot capture
Smith has never been past the second round, so his cardio over fifteen minutes is unmeasured
Brown's six-inch reach edge and 5.27 volume give him a genuine route if he can fight at distance
Brown has been to the judges fourteen times and knows how to survive and steal rounds in a way Smith has never needed to
Smith's 100.0 chin is an absence of evidence — nobody rated above 51.1 has tried to find it
Brown is still only eighteen months removed from a second-round knockout win of his own
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