Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Las Vegas, USA

31 Oct 2026

Women's Strawweight

51%

Alencar

49%

Rodriguez

⚡ ML Model

Talita Alencar

"Problem Child"

8 – 1

5'1"58" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 58

Piera Rodriguez

"La Fiera"

12 – 2

Well-Rounded3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'3"

CFR 50

Talita

Alencar

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Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Alencar

Ariane Carnelossi stopped Piera Rodriguez in the second round and was submitted by Talita Alencar in the third, and the rest of this fight follows from that.

Both women have beaten almost everyone put in front of them lately and neither has done it in a way that sells tickets. Between them they have seven decisions across ten recorded recent bouts, plus two submissions and one stoppage the pack does not even record a method for. What separates them is that one of them has a finishing mechanism and the other does not. Talita Alencar's submission score …

Alencar intel

Alencar (8-1-1) is 4-1 in her last five, including a decision over Julia Polastri in April 2026 and a third-round submission of Ariane Carnelossi in November 2025. She is 35, has five recorded UFC fights, and her chin rating of 98.0 is the higher of the two.

Rodriguez intel

Rodriguez (12-2) has won three straight by decision, over Sam Hughes, Ketlen Souza and Josefine Knutsson. She is 33 with seven recorded UFC fights. Her two recent defeats are both stoppages — Carnelossi in the second round in May 2024 and a Gillian Robertson submission in April 2023.

Key angles

Carnelossi as the common opponent: she stopped Rodriguez in round two and was submitted by Alencar in round three

A 12.7cm reach gap, 160.0cm to 147.3cm, the widest in this pack

Rodriguez's 0.0 submission score against Alencar's 3.80 grappling

A 9.43 volume score against a 4.15 pressure rating — can Rodriguez keep the fight at the end of her jab

Five and seven recorded UFC fights: both composites sit on thin samples

Risk flags

Rodriguez has won three straight by outworking people at range, and 12.7cm of reach is a lot to give up over fifteen minutes

Alencar's 1.60 striking score gives her no way to force the grappling if the takedowns are not there

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Alencar

Rodriguez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'1"

Height

+5'3"

58"

Reach

+63"

Age

+33

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Alencar

Rodriguez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

58.3

50.4

50.0

Performance Avg

43.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Alencar

Rodriguez

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

1.6

/ 10

1.4

/ 10

4.2

Style: Pressure

2.1

7.6

Style: Volume

9.4

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Alencar

Rodriguez

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

3.8

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

2.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Alencar

Rodriguez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

6/9 fights

Chin rating based on

8/14 fights

Alencar

Rodriguez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

L · R2

Alencar

Rodriguez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

25%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alencar

Rodriguez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.4

3.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

2.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

2.1

7.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

9.4

Alencar

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Rodriguez

Alencar

Attacking

99 landed

Absorbing

79 absorbed

Rodriguez

Attacking

128 landed

Absorbing

102 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Alencar targets the head (70% of attacks) — Rodriguez absorbs 74% of strikes there

🎯Rodriguez targets the head (51% of attacks) — Alencar absorbs 68% of strikes there

Alencar · Last 5

Upcoming

Piera Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · 2026-10

W · Dec · R3

Julia Polastri

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · Sub · R3

Ariane Carnelossi

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Vanessa Demopoulos

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

L · Dec · R3

Stephanie Luciano

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

Rodriguez · Last 5

Upcoming

Talita Alencar

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · 2026-10

W · Dec · R3

Sam Hughes

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Ketlen Souza

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08

W · Dec · R3

Josefine Knutsson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12

L · R2

Ariane Carnelossi

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Talita Alencar · Piera Rodriguez

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Piera

Rodriguez

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