METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Middleweight
VS
57%
Whittaker
43%
Gastelum
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Robert WhittakerwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Kelvin Gastelum · UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Whittaker
→
Actual result
Whittaker wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Whittaker at 57% vs Gastelum at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WhittakerGastelum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Whittaker
Gastelum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
71"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Whittaker
Gastelum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.0
41.4
56.6
Performance Avg
47.4
46
Quality of Victory
42
71
Momentum Score
28
Whittaker
Gastelum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.3
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
4.9
Style: Pressure
4.2
6.3
Style: Volume
6.3
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
6
0
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance7
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Whittaker
Gastelum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
2.7
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Whittaker
Gastelum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
38
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
26/32 fights
Whittaker
Gastelum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
28
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Whittaker
Gastelum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
36%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Whittaker
Gastelum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
WhittakerGastelum
Strike Zones
Whittaker
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedGastelum
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (78% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Gastelum targets the head (86% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Whittaker
RND
Gastelum
0/0R00/0
Whittaker · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevSubmission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueSubmission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusDecision
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferDecision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradySubmission
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