METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Catch Weight
VS
23%
Lentz
77%
Evloev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Movsar EvloevwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nik Lentz · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Evloev
→
Actual result
Evloev wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Evloev is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lentz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Lentz's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LentzEvloev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lentz
Evloev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lentz
Evloev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
54.0
45.3
Performance Avg
51.4
35
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
85
Lentz
Evloev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
2.7
6.4
Style: Volume
9.8
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
39
5
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
19Distance47
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Lentz
Evloev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lentz
Evloev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/42 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Lentz
Evloev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
85
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lentz
Evloev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
10
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lentz
Evloev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.7
6.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.8
LentzEvloev
Strike Zones
Lentz
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedEvloev
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lentz targets the head (63% of attacks) — Evloev absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Evloev targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lentz absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lentz
RND
Evloev
0/0R00/0
Lentz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevDecision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · KO · R2
Charles OliveiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R2
Gray MaynardKO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
Evloev · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
W · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Diego LopesDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05