METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
A 39-year-old with a chin rating of 26.0 against a submission hunter who has finished three of his last five inside a round.
Tim Elliott has been fighting professionally for long enough that his own weirdness became a style, and for years the deal was simple: he would drag anyone into a scrap, absorb whatever came back, and win the exchanges nobody else wanted. The absorbing part is what the data now questions. His chin rating reads 26.0 — the lowest figure in this pairing by 70 points — and at 39 that is not a number t…
Elliott (22-14-1) lost a decision to Steve Erceg in May, his only fight since submitting Kai Asakura in the second round in August 2025. At 39 he has 22 recorded promotional fights, and his chin rating of 26.0 with a 42.5 momentum score describes the tail end of a long career. His 0.91 striking rating is the lowest figure in this bout.
Chairez (13-6) has won four of his last five, three by first-round submission — Bruno Silva in June, CJ Vergara in March 2025 and Daniel Lacerda in February 2024. His only recent defeat was a decision to Joshua Van in September 2024. A 96.0 chin rating and a 0.75 finish rate at 30 years old.
Nearly thirteen centimetres of reach for Chairez at identical height
A 26.0 chin rating at 39 years old against a fighter with a 0.75 finish rate
Elliott's 6.51 volume against 3.33 — his one measurable edge, and it needs the fight to stay long
Chairez has finished three of his last five inside the opening round
Elliott has been submitted before, by Muhammad Mokaev in October 2023, against a man rated 7.50 for submissions
Elliott has spent 22 promotional fights making better-rated opponents look ordinary; the metrics have underrated him before
Chairez's 3.33 volume means a disciplined Elliott who avoids the clinch can bank rounds on output alone
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown