METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Heavyweight
VS
60%
Lewis
40%
Lima
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:33
★ Official Result
Derrick LewiswinsKO/TKOR1 · 0:33
def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lewis
→
Actual result
Lewis wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Lewis holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Lima has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lima has a chin rating of 16 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LewisLima
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lewis
Lima
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
75"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Lima
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.7
39.4
56.6
Performance Avg
53.8
53
Quality of Victory
49
84
Momentum Score
59
Lewis
Lima
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
6.7
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
6.9
2.9
Style: Volume
3.4
16 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
16Ground1
Lewis
Lima
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lewis
Lima
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
16
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
9
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
18/32 fights
Lewis
Lima
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
59
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Lewis
Lima
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
73%
16
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lewis
Lima
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
LewisLima
Strike Zones
Lewis
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedLima
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (94% of attacks) — Lima absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Lima targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lewis
RND
Lima
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lewis · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Josh HokitKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaKO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovDecision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05