METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Bantamweight
VS
42%
Wellmaker
58%
Diaz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:08
★ Official Result
Juan DiazwinsSubmissionR2 · 4:08
def. Malcolm Wellmaker · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
Diaz wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Wellmaker at 42% vs Diaz at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wellmaker has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Wellmaker's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WellmakerDiaz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wellmaker
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
32
Age
+28
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Wellmaker
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.1
78.3
52.0
Performance Avg
69.7
60
Quality of Victory
50
52
Momentum Score
100
Wellmaker
Diaz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
10.0
0.8
Style: Volume
2.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
1
2
Body
1
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Wellmaker
Diaz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wellmaker
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
100
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
1/17 fights
Wellmaker
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
Wellmaker
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wellmaker
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
WellmakerDiaz
Strike Zones
Wellmaker
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wellmaker targets the head (40% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 40% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the legs (71% of attacks) — Wellmaker absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wellmaker
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Wellmaker · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Otari TanziloviKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
L · Sub · R2
Juan DiazSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ethyn EwingDecision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Kris MoutinhoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Cameron SaaimanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
Diaz · Last 1
W · Sub · R2
Malcolm WellmakerSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05