METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Winnipeg, Canada
18 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
55%
Nallo
45%
Herbert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:05
CFR 49
★ Official Result
Jai HerbertwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:05
def. Mandel Nallo · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nallo
→
Actual result
Herbert wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Nallo at 55% vs Herbert at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nallo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Risk flags
Herbert has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NalloHerbert
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nallo
Herbert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
37+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nallo
Herbert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.7
48.6
53.0
Performance Avg
43.4
55
Quality of Victory
39
59
Momentum Score
74
Nallo
Herbert
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
10.0
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
8.5
Style: Pressure
4.3
1.0
Style: Volume
5.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
18
1
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance7
1Clinch0
0Ground12
Nallo
Herbert
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nallo
Herbert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/18 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Nallo
Herbert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
74
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nallo
Herbert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nallo
Herbert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
NalloHerbert
Strike Zones
Nallo
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedHerbert
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nallo targets the head (81% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Herbert targets the head (95% of attacks) — Nallo absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nallo
RND
Herbert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Nallo · Last 2
W · KO · R2
Nate LandwehrKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
Herbert · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07