METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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Dione Barbosa has beaten both of these women on the cards, and the rematch neither of them got is being played out against each other instead.
Dione Barbosa is the common thread. She outpointed Ernesta Kareckaite over three rounds at UFC 301 in May 2024, and she outpointed Melissa Gatto over three rounds in April. Two fighters, one shared obstacle, and neither of them solved it — which tells you something about the ceiling in this bout, and rather less about who wins it. The profiles could hardly be less alike. Kareckaite's volume score…
Kareckaite (6-2-1) is 28 with three recorded UFC fights, all going to decision: losses to Regina Tarin at catchweight in February and Dione Barbosa in May 2024, with a win over Nicolle Caliari in January 2025 between them. Her 8.67 volume score is among the highest here, her 0.67 striking score among the lowest, and her finish rate is 0.00. At three fights the sample is slim.
Gatto (9-3-2) is 30 with six recorded UFC fights. Both of her wins in the pack are third-round stoppages — Tamires Vidal at 0:37 in May 2024 and Sijara Eubanks at 0:45 in December 2021 — and all three of her losses came on the cards, most recently to Dione Barbosa in April. A 94.0 chin rating and 7.67 striking score carry her 53.2 composite.
Dione Barbosa outpointed both women — Kareckaite in May 2024, Gatto in April
An 8.67 volume score against 1.0, and a 7.67 striking score against 0.67: quantity versus quality in its purest form
Both of Gatto's recorded wins are third-round stoppages, at 0:37 and 0:45
Ten centimetres of height and five of reach for Kareckaite, whose 2.4 grappling is the only mat figure in the fight
Chin ratings of 96.0 and 94.0 with no stoppage losses between them — the case for a decision
Kareckaite's size and 8.67 volume could make this the cluttered, low-quality fight that a 1.0-volume striker cannot win on the cards
Gatto's 0.0 grappling, wrestling and submission scores leave her no recorded answer if Kareckaite ties her up against the fence
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
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