METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Lightweight
VS
52%
Alvarez
48%
Brener
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:36
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:36
def. Elves Brener · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Alvarez
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Alvarez at 52% vs Brener at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AlvarezBrener
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Alvarez
Brener
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
72"
33
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Alvarez
Brener
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.3
55.1
57.2
Performance Avg
52.1
51
Quality of Victory
49
59
Momentum Score
52
Alvarez
Brener
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.3
/ 10
8.6
/ 10
8.1
Style: Pressure
7.0
2.3
Style: Volume
3.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
5
5
Body
2
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
19Distance12
20Clinch0
0Ground0
Alvarez
Brener
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Brener
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/22 fights
Alvarez
Brener
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
52
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Alvarez
Brener
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
75%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Brener
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.6
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
AlvarezBrener
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedBrener
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Brener absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Brener targets the head (42% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Brener
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R2
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W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueDecision
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W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
Brener · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Josiah HarrellKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09
L · Dec · R3
Esteban RibovicsDecision
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L · KO · R3
Joel AlvarezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Myktybek OrolbaiDecision
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W · KO · R1
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