METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Flyweight
VS
43%
Chairez
57%
Van
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joshua VanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Edgar Chairez · UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Van
→
Actual result
Van wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chairez at 43% vs Van at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChairezVan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chairez
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
71"+
Reach
65"
30
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chairez
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
68.2
50.9
Performance Avg
63.5
47
Quality of Victory
45
30
Momentum Score
100
Chairez
Van
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
5.3
3.1
Style: Volume
6.9
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
15
0
Body
6
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Chairez
Van
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.6
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
4.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
7.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chairez
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/19 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Chairez
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
100
Current form
8-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Chairez
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
36%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chairez
Van
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.9
ChairezVan
Strike Zones
Chairez
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedVan
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chairez targets the head (91% of attacks) — Van absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (63% of attacks) — Chairez absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chairez
RND
Van
0/0R00/0
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L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R5
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