METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Jamey-Lyn Horth is out injured, and a judo player with five submissions in six wins gets three weeks' notice to meet a former title challenger who has not fought since March 2024.
This fight was Jamey-Lyn Horth's until late September. Horth sustained a training injury, went for an MRI, and was not medically cleared — the first withdrawal of her professional career. For two weeks Katlyn Cerminara had no opponent at all. On 1 October the UFC filled the slot with Mackenzie Stiller, a 27-year-old from the LFA making her promotional debut on under three weeks' notice, and in doi…
Cerminara (18-6) is a former flyweight title challenger with seventeen recorded fights, fifteen of which went to the judges, and a finish rate of 0.00. Her composite rating is 45.8, her quality-of-victory 25.0 and her chin rating 48.0. She is 3-2 across her last five, all five on the scorecards, and has not fought since losing a decision to Maycee Barber at UFC 299 on 9 March 2024 — a layoff of two years and seven months by fight night. She is 175.3cm with a 172.7cm reach, orthodox, and turns 38 in December.
Stiller is a UFC debutant and the model holds nothing on her — no composite, no chin rating, no quality-of-victory, no style scores, no height or reach. Outside the promotion she is 27, 6-2 by the records that count her Ultimate Fighter loss and 6-1 by those that do not, with five submissions among six wins and four first-round submissions as an amateur. Her last three wins were all submissions in the LFA: Trillo by armbar, Brador by bulldog choke, McIntyre by armbar. She has been stopped once, by Sumiko Inaba in September 2024, and lost a decision to Delphine Benouaich on The Ultimate Fighter 34 in April. She took this bout on under three weeks' notice.
Stiller wins by submission — five of six — and Cerminara has never been submitted in seventeen recorded fights
A two-year-seven-month layoff for a 37-year-old whose game depends on three sharp rounds of volume
Cerminara's 0.00 finish rate against a short-notice opponent who may only need to survive to the cards
Cerminara is 175.3cm with a 172.7cm reach; Stiller has no recorded height or reach at all
Both of Cerminara's career stoppage losses came from strikes, and both were in 2020
Stiller's camp was not built for this fight — she took it on under three weeks' notice
The model holds no data on Stiller whatsoever, so the 0.56 is a statement about Cerminara's floor rather than a read on the matchup
A thirty-one-month layoff is not something the metrics can price — Cerminara's ratings describe the fighter who left in March 2024, not the one who returns
A 25.0 quality-of-victory score means the wins behind her 45.8 composite came against opposition the model rates poorly
Stiller's three most recent wins were all submissions, and one clean grip changes this fight in a round
No height or reach is on record for Stiller, so the reach advantage assumed above is unverified
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown