METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Albazi stopped Costa in the third round four years ago, and almost everything the numbers say about both men has moved since.
Amir Albazi beat Alessandro Costa by third-round knockout in December 2022. That result is on both sheets, and it is the least useful thing in this preview, because the two fighters who walk out in Doha bear very little resemblance to the pair who met four years ago. Albazi (17-3) has not won a fight since June 2023, when he took a five-round decision from Kai Kara-France. Since then: a five-roun…
Albazi (17-3) has lost his last two — a decision to Kyoji Horiguchi in February and a five-round decision to Brandon Moreno in November 2024 — and has not won since beating Kai Kara-France over five rounds in June 2023. At 32, with seven recorded fights, his 96.0 chin rating is the highest in this pack and his 4.16 grappling and 4.00 submission are his real assets.
Costa (15-5) has won three straight inside the distance: a second-round submission of Cody Durden at UFC 329 in July, a first-round knockout of Matt Schnell in June, and a second-round knockout of Stewart Nicoll in April. His 1.00 finish rate and 54.9 quality-of-victory both lead this pack. The 54.0 chin rating reflects a third-round knockout loss to Alden Coria in September 2025.
Albazi stopped Costa in round three in December 2022 — how much of that fight still applies
Costa's 9.25 striking against the best chin rating in the pack at 96.0
Albazi's 4.00 submission score against a man knocked out by Alden Coria fourteen months ago
Costa's 1.25 volume score — the lowest here — against a fighter who has twice gone twenty-five minutes
Albazi has not won since June 2023, and both defeats came from being outworked across the distance
Nobody has hurt Albazi; a 96.0 chin rating against a 1.25 volume fighter means Costa may simply not land enough to matter
If Albazi commits to his 4.16 grappling early rather than boxing, Costa's 1.12 wrestling score offers little resistance
Costa's 54.0 chin is the softer of the two, and Albazi carries a 0.60 finish rate with a first-round submission on his sheet
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown