Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Inglewood, USA

18 Jan 2025

Bantamweight

58%

Talbott

42%

Barcelos

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Payton Talbott

11 – 1

5'10"70" reachSwitch28 yrs3-fight win streakStriker

CFR 68

Raoni Barcelos

22 – 5

Well-Rounded39 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"

CFR 49

★ Official Result

Raoni BarceloswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Payton Talbott · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Talbott

→

Actual result

Barcelos wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Talbott at 58% vs Barcelos at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Talbott has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Risk flags

Barcelos has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

TalbottBarcelos

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Talbott

Barcelos

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'7"

70"+

Reach

67"

28+

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Talbott

Barcelos

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

68.4

48.8

61.3

Performance Avg

47.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Talbott

Barcelos

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

6.7

/ 10

3.2

/ 10

7.2

Style: Pressure

4.6

4.4

Style: Volume

6.5

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

11Distance7

6Clinch3

5Ground27

Talbott

Barcelos

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.1

/ 10

3.0

/ 10

1.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.1

1.7

Submission Style (/10)

1.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Talbott

Barcelos

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R3.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

7/12 fights

Chin rating based on

16/27 fights

Talbott

Barcelos

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

Last 5

L · KO · R5

W · Dec · R3

Talbott

Barcelos

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

36%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Talbott

Barcelos

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

6.7

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.2

2.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.0

1.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.1

1.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.8

7.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

4.6

4.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.5

Talbott

Strike Zones

Barcelos

Talbott

Attacking

22 landed

Absorbing

37 absorbed

Barcelos

Attacking

37 landed

Absorbing

22 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Talbott targets the head (82% of attacks) — Barcelos absorbs 82% of strikes there

🎯Barcelos targets the head (100% of attacks) — Talbott absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Talbott

RND

Barcelos

0/0R00/0

Talbott · Last 5

W · KO · R1

Deiveson Figueiredo

KO/TKO

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10

W · Dec · R3

Henry Cejudo

Decision

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Felipe Lima

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · Dec · R3

Raoni Barcelos

Decision

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · KO · R1

Yanis Ghemmouri

KO/TKO

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Barcelos · Last 5

L · KO · R5

Raul Rosas Jr.

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Montel Jackson

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · Dec · R3

Ricky Simon

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11

W · Dec · R3

Cody Garbrandt

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Payton Talbott

Decision

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

News & Media

Payton Talbott · Raoni Barcelos

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