METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Both men have a decision win over Joe Solecki and identical frames; one of them submits people and the other has not finished anybody on record.
There is a neat symmetry here that the matchmakers presumably enjoyed. Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev stand at exactly the same height, 177.8cm, with exactly the same reach, 182.9cm. Both have a decision win over Joe Solecki — Dawson in June 2024, Aliev in January 2025. Both carry a 100.0 momentum score and a 100.0 fade index. From there they diverge sharply. Dawson is the more complete and the m…
Dawson (24-3-1) submitted Mateusz Rebecki in the third round in May 2026, having been knocked out by Manuel Torres in 2:25 of the first at UFC 323 in December 2025. Before that: a decision over Diego Ferreira, a second-round knockout of Rafa Garcia and a decision over Joe Solecki. A switch-stance fighter at 32 with a 4.17 submission score and a 56.0 chin rating.
Aliev (11-0) is unbeaten and has taken all four recorded UFC fights to the judges, beating Mike Davis, Shem Rock, Joe Solecki and Rafael Alves on the cards. At 25 he is seven years younger, with a 100.0 chin rating and a 0.0 finish rate. Four recorded fights against a 25.0 quality-of-victory means his 60.8 composite carries real uncertainty.
Both men beat Joe Solecki by decision — Dawson in June 2024, Aliev in January 2025
Dawson's 4.17 submission score against a fighter with no recorded submission defence
Aliev's 10.0 volume against Dawson's 6.65 pressure — output versus forward pace
A 56.0 chin rating against an unbeaten man who has never finished anyone
Aliev's ratings rest on four recorded UFC fights and a 25.0 quality-of-victory
Aliev's 100.0 chin rating and 10.0 volume are a plausible route to a clear decision if Dawson's takedowns do not land
Dawson was knocked out inside two and a half minutes by Manuel Torres in December 2025; his 56.0 chin is the softest thing in the fight
Four recorded fights makes Aliev's profile hard to trust in either direction — he could be better than 60.8 suggests
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown