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UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Perth, Australia
17 Aug 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
47%
O'Neill
53%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Casey
Casey O'Neill
"King"
11 – 2
5'6"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Luana
Luana Santos
11 – 2
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak26 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'6"
CFR 67
★ Official Result
Casey O'NeillwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Luana Santos · UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Santos
→
Actual result
O'Neill wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — O'Neill at 47% vs Santos at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
O'NeillSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
O'Neill
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
69"+
Reach
67"
29
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
O'Neill
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.1
67.3
58.5
Performance Avg
58.1
46
Quality of Victory
40
58
Momentum Score
100
O'Neill
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
7.3
Style: Pressure
6.1
3.8
Style: Volume
5.7
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
9
5
Body
2
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
25Distance13
0Clinch0
9Ground0
O'Neill
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
O'Neill
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/13 fights
Chin rating based on
8/13 fights
O'Neill
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
O'Neill
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

O'Neill
Santos
Striking5.8 / 3.4Volume3.8 / 5.7Grappling3.0 / 3.9Wrestling2.1 / 2.7Submission2.9 / 3.3Pressure7.3 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
O'Neill
Strike Zones
Santos
O'Neill
Attacking
26HEAD5BODY3LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD5BODY3LEGS34 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯O'Neill targets the head (76% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (69% of attacks) — O'Neill absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

O'Neill
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0

O'Neill · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Eduarda Moura
Submission
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
W · KO · R1
Gabriella Fernandes
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luana Santos
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Ariane da Silva
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Jennifer Maia
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Santos · Last 5

Upcoming
Yana Santos
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan · 2026-10
W · Dec · R3
Karol Rosa
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Melissa Croden
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Sub · R2
Tainara Lisboa
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Casey O'Neill
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Casey O'Neill · Luana Santos
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