METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Las Vegas, USA
7 Oct 2023
Featherweight
VS
59%
Hernandez
41%
Algeo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bill AlgeowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alexander Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Algeo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Hernandez at 59% vs Algeo at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Hernandez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Algeo has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HernandezAlgeo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Hernandez
Algeo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+73"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Hernandez
Algeo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
39.1
49.1
Performance Avg
41.5
43
Quality of Victory
36
100
Momentum Score
51
Hernandez
Algeo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.6
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
5.6
Style: Pressure
4.3
4.8
Style: Volume
5.8
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
19
19
Body
13
0
Leg
7
RangeRange
31Distance38
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Hernandez
Algeo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
3.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hernandez
Algeo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
50
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/27 fights
Hernandez
Algeo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Hernandez
Algeo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
40%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hernandez
Algeo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
HernandezAlgeo
Strike Zones
Hernandez
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedAlgeo
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hernandez targets the body (61% of attacks) — Algeo absorbs 61% of strikes there
🎯Algeo targets the head (49% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 49% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hernandez
RND
Algeo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hernandez · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
Algeo · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dooho ChoiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Sub · R2
TJ BrownSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09