METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jan 2025
Women's Flyweight
VS
45%
Kareckaite
55%
Caliari
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ernesta KareckaitewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nicolle Caliari · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Caliari
→
Actual result
Kareckaite wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Kareckaite at 45% vs Caliari at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Caliari has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KareckaiteCaliari
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kareckaite
Caliari
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'3"
71"+
Reach
62"
28+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kareckaite
Caliari
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.8
42.1
28.3
Performance Avg
37.0
25
Quality of Victory
45
40
Momentum Score
22
Kareckaite
Caliari
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
7.8
8.7
Style: Volume
0.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
9
5
Body
11
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
31Distance21
1Clinch0
0Ground1
Kareckaite
Caliari
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kareckaite
Caliari
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/8 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Kareckaite
Caliari
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
22
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Kareckaite
Caliari
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kareckaite
Caliari
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
KareckaiteCaliari
Strike Zones
Kareckaite
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedCaliari
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kareckaite targets the head (84% of attacks) — Caliari absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Caliari targets the body (50% of attacks) — Kareckaite absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kareckaite
RND
Caliari
0/0R00/0
Kareckaite · Last 4
Upcoming
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