METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
London, United Kingdom
23 Jul 2022
Lightweight
VS
58%
Herbert
42%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 49
★ Official Result
Jai HerbertwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Kyle Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herbert
→
Actual result
Herbert wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Herbert at 58% vs Nelson at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HerbertNelson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herbert
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
77"+
Reach
71"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Herbert
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.6
35.9
43.4
Performance Avg
40.1
39
Quality of Victory
39
74
Momentum Score
36
Herbert
Nelson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
4.0
5.8
Style: Volume
5.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
0
Body
1
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance5
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Herbert
Nelson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
5
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/20 fights
Chin rating based on
13/24 fights
Herbert
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
36
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Herbert
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herbert
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
HerbertNelson
Strike Zones
Herbert
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedNelson
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (80% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (40% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herbert
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
Herbert · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloDecision
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W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Nelson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cristian PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
L · KO · R1
Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Matt FrevolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Steve GarciaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · KO · R1
Bill AlgeoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03