METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago, USA
16 Aug 2025
Featherweight
VS
54%
Murphy
46%
Pico
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:21
★ Official Result
Lerone MurphywinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:21
def. Aaron Pico · UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Murphy
→
Actual result
Murphy wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Murphy at 54% vs Pico at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MurphyPico
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Murphy
Pico
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
73"+
Reach
70"
35
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Pico
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.5
56.7
57.7
Performance Avg
52.2
36
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
70
Murphy
Pico
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.1
/ 10
6.3
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
5.5
7.1
Style: Volume
5.3
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
4
Body
5
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance7
1Clinch3
1Ground3
Murphy
Pico
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Pico
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
78
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
3/19 fights
Murphy
Pico
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
70
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Murphy
Pico
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Pico
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
MurphyPico
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedPico
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pico absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Pico targets the head (54% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Pico
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevDecision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeDecision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
Pico · Last 3
W · KO · R1
Losene KeitaKO/TKO
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10
W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullDecision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Lerone MurphyKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08