Grant Dawson vs Rafa Garcia — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira

Las Vegas, USA

12 Oct 2024

Lightweight

57%

Dawson

43%

Garcia

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 2 · 1:42

Grant Dawson

"KGD"

24 – 3

5'10"72" reachSwitch32 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 64

Rafa Garcia

"Gifted"

19 – 4

Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"

CFR 48

★ Official Result

Grant DawsonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:42

def. Rafa Garcia · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Dawson

→

Actual result

Dawson wins

KO/TKO · R2

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 57% vs Garcia at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

DawsonGarcia

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Dawson

Garcia

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'7"

72"+

Reach

70"

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Dawson

Garcia

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

63.5

48.2

57.2

Performance Avg

42.6

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Dawson

Garcia

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

2.6

/ 10

6.4

Style: Pressure

3.8

5.4

Style: Volume

6.9

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

3Distance1

0Clinch0

21Ground0

Dawson

Garcia

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.2

/ 10

2.9

/ 10

2.9

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.0

3.9

Submission Style (/10)

1.4

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Dawson

Garcia

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

16/27 fights

Chin rating based on

12/23 fights

Dawson

Garcia

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R3

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

Dawson

Garcia

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

54%

29%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dawson

Garcia

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.3

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.6

4.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.0

3.9

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.4

6.4

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.8

5.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

6.9

Dawson

Strike Zones

Garcia

Dawson

Attacking

24 landed

Absorbing

1 absorbed

Garcia

Attacking

1 landed

Absorbing

24 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Dawson targets the head (92% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 92% of strikes there

🎯Garcia targets the head (100% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dawson

RND

Garcia

0/0R00/0

Dawson · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Nurullo Aliev

Decision

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · 2026-10

W · Sub · R3

Mateusz Rebecki

Submission

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

L · KO · R1

Manuel Torres

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Diego Ferreira

Decision

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · KO · R2

Rafa Garcia

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

Garcia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Rongzhu

Decision

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

W · Dec · R3

Alexander Hernandez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

W · KO · R3

Jared Gordon

KO/TKO

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

W · Dec · R3

Vinc Pichel

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

L · KO · R2

Grant Dawson

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10

News & Media

Grant Dawson · Rafa Garcia

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