METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Boston, USA
18 Jan 2015
Lightweight
VS
59%
Cerrone
41%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Benson Henderson · UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 59% vs Henderson at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henderson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CerroneHenderson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cerrone
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cerrone
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
19.3
53.0
Performance Avg
51.8
47
Quality of Victory
34
63
Momentum Score
84
Cerrone
Henderson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
6.7
Style: Pressure
3.6
3.7
Style: Volume
8.1
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
7
6
Body
7
9
Leg
11
RangeRange
20Distance25
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Cerrone
Henderson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
2.6
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
6
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cerrone
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Cerrone
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
84
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
Cerrone
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
18%
10
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Henderson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
CerroneHenderson
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedHenderson
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the legs (41% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 41% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the legs (44% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerSubmission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Henderson · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalDecision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R4
Brandon ThatchSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneDecision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
W · Sub · R4
Rustam KhabilovSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06