METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
71%
Ferguson
29%
Pettis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 5:00
Tony
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
26 – 11
5'11"76" reachOrthodox42 yrs8-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
AP
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 19
★ Official Result
Tony FergusonwinsKO/TKOR2 · 5:00
def. Anthony Pettis · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferguson
→
Actual result
Ferguson wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis

Ferguson is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Ferguson's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
FergusonPettis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ferguson
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
76"+
Reach
72"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ferguson
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.2
18.8
54.2
Performance Avg
52.6
49
Quality of Victory
51
52
Momentum Score
72
Ferguson
Pettis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
6.1
3.4
Style: Volume
4.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
45
Head
24
13
Body
3
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
57Distance20
4Clinch2
4Ground5
Ferguson
Pettis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.6
6
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ferguson
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
12
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Ferguson
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
72
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Ferguson
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
64%
3
KO / TKO Wins
3
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferguson
Pettis
Striking3.3 / 3.8Volume3.4 / 4.0Grappling3.8 / 3.8Wrestling2.7 / 2.6Submission4.0 / 3.6Pressure6.1 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Ferguson
Strike Zones
Pettis
Ferguson
Attacking
45HEAD13BODY7LEGS65 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD3BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
24HEAD3BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
45HEAD13BODY7LEGS65 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferguson targets the head (69% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ferguson absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferguson
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Ferguson · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael Chiesa
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Paddy Pimblett
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R3
King Green
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Sub · R4
Nate Diaz
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · KO · R2
Michael Chandler
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Alex Morono
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald Cerrone
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego Ferreira
Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate Diaz
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen Thompson
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03

News & Media

Tony Ferguson · Anthony Pettis
← Back to fights
DAFABETBet on UFC & MMA · Competitive odds on every main card
18+ · Gamble ResponsiblyBET NOW ↗
🥊 Bet Now
Our trusted bookmakers
Trusted Bookmakers
⚡
Cloudbet
Crypto sports betting
CRYPTO
🎁 New customer offer: 100% up to 5 BTC welcome bonus
BET NOW→
🎯
Dafabet
MMA & UFC specialist
SPORTS
🎁 New customer offer: Competitive odds on every main card
BET NOW→
18+ · Gamble Responsibly. Odds shown are best available and subject to change. Combatrics may earn commission from bookmaker links. If gambling is affecting you, visit BeGambleAware.org.
🥊
Combatrics Support
Online · Usually replies quickly

👋 Got a question about a fighter, stat or fight? Drop us a message and we'll get back to you.

Combatrics

Powered by Combatrics · We typically reply within a few hours