METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
46%
Garcia
54%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rafa GarciawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Alexander Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Hernandez
→
Actual result
Garcia wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Garcia at 46% vs Hernandez at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hernandez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Hernandez has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GarciaHernandez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Garcia
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+72"
32+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.2
56.3
42.6
Performance Avg
49.1
32
Quality of Victory
43
70
Momentum Score
100
Garcia
Hernandez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
6.6
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
5.6
6.9
Style: Volume
4.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
21
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
28Distance24
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Garcia
Hernandez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garcia
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
14
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/27 fights
Garcia
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
70
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Garcia
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
55%
1
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garcia
Hernandez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.6
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
GarciaHernandez
Strike Zones
Garcia
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedHernandez
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (93% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (88% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garcia
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
Garcia · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuDecision
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Jared GordonKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Grant DawsonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
Hernandez · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Rafael Dos AnjosKO/TKO
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraKO/TKO
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Chase HooperKO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03