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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Losene Keita steps in for Arnold Allen seven weeks after a first-round knockout, and meets a ranked wrestler the model rates far below him.
The numbers say this is not close. The sample says be careful. Losene Keita, drafted in on short notice after Arnold Allen withdrew while recovering from previous medical treatment, carries a 65.8 composite rating into Abu Dhabi against Aaron Pico's 37.1 — a 28.7-point gap. But the model has two recorded UFC fights for each man, and two fights is not enough to lean on either figure very hard. Kei…
Keita (16-2) is 1-1 in two recorded UFC fights: a decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in March and a first-round KO of Muhammad Naimov on 5 September that earned Performance of the Night at UFC Paris. He is 28 on fight night and takes this on short notice as the replacement for Arnold Allen. His 60.0 quality-of-victory and 98 chin lead Pico's figures, but both rest on two fights.
Pico (14-5), ranked No. 13, is also 1-1 across two recorded fights: knocked out by Lerone Murphy in the first round at UFC 319 in August 2025, then a decision over Patricio Pitbull at UFC 327 in April. He is 30 on fight night. His 25.0 quality-of-victory and 45.5 momentum score both trail Keita's clearly.
Can Pico land a takedown before Keita's 8.5 pressure forces an exchange
Keita's 0.0 wrestling score: untested defence, or no defence
Short notice seven weeks after a first-round KO — sharp, or underprepared for a wrestler
Pico's 78 chin and the Lerone Murphy knockout against a 10.0 striker
Two recorded fights each: how much weight can a 28.7-point composite gap bear
Wrestling is exactly what a short-notice camp is least able to prepare for; if Pico's takedowns land, Keita's 1.0 volume leaves him little to win rounds with
Both fighters have only two recorded UFC fights, so the composite gap may be mostly noise
Pico's 9.0 volume wins a decision if Keita cannot find the finish
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown