METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Women's Flyweight
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
48%
Grasso
52%
Shevchenko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Alexa
Alexa Grasso
17 – 5
5'5"66" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Valentina
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak38 yrsSouthpaw66" reach5'5"
CFR 62
★ Official Result
Valentina ShevchenkowinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Alexa Grasso · UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Shevchenko
→
Actual result
Shevchenko wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Grasso at 48% vs Shevchenko at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Shevchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
GrassoShevchenko
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Grasso
Shevchenko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
66"
33+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Grasso
Shevchenko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
62.1
51.5
Performance Avg
66.4
41
Quality of Victory
55
85
Momentum Score
53
Grasso
Shevchenko
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
4.1
Style: Pressure
5.3
6.9
Style: Volume
6.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
12
1
Body
0
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance13
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Grasso
Shevchenko
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grasso
Shevchenko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Grasso
Shevchenko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
53
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R4
Grasso
Shevchenko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Grasso
Shevchenko
Striking2.3 / 4.3Volume6.9 / 6.5Grappling3.3 / 2.5Wrestling2.3 / 1.8Submission2.0 / 1.3Pressure4.1 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Grasso
Strike Zones
Shevchenko
Grasso
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Shevchenko
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Grasso targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Shevchenko absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Shevchenko targets the head (86% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Grasso
RND
Shevchenko
0/0R00/0

Grasso · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Manon Fiorot
Decision
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09
W · KO · R1
Maycee Barber
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia Silva
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09

Shevchenko · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Zhang Weili
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Manon Fiorot
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Alexa Grasso
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Alexa Grasso
Decision
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · Sub · R4
Alexa Grasso
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

News & Media

Alexa Grasso · Valentina Shevchenko
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