METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Las Vegas, USA
23 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
28%
Worthy
72%
Herbert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:47
CFR 49
★ Official Result
Jai HerbertwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:47
def. Khama Worthy · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herbert
→
Actual result
Herbert wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Herbert is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Worthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Risk flags
Worthy's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herbert has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WorthyHerbert
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Worthy
Herbert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+77"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Worthy
Herbert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
48.6
47.5
Performance Avg
43.4
53
Quality of Victory
39
59
Momentum Score
74
Worthy
Herbert
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
4.3
0.8
Style: Volume
5.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
21
1
Body
1
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch2
0Ground3
Worthy
Herbert
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Worthy
Herbert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
40
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
11/20 fights
Worthy
Herbert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
74
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Worthy
Herbert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Worthy
Herbert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
WorthyHerbert
Strike Zones
Worthy
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedHerbert
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Worthy targets the head (45% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Herbert targets the head (88% of attacks) — Worthy absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Worthy
RND
Herbert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Worthy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Jamie MullarkeyKO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Sub · R3
Luis PenaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · KO · R1
Devonte SmithKO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
Herbert · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamDecision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07