METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
16 Jan 2021
Welterweight
VS
25%
Condit
75%
Brown
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Carlos ConditwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Matt Brown · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Brown
→
Actual result
Condit wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Brown is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ConditBrown
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Condit
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
75"
42+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.2
42.5
47.8
Performance Avg
54.0
48
Quality of Victory
52
20
Momentum Score
78
Condit
Brown
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
8.8
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
7.9
4.5
Style: Volume
2.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
13 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
4
1
Body
4
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance1
5Clinch3
2Ground4
Condit
Brown
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.2
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Condit
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Condit
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
78
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Condit
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
88%
4
KO / TKO Wins
13
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
ConditBrown
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedBrown
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (83% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (50% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraSubmission
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Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Bryan BarberenaDecision
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W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Carlos ConditDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
L · KO · R2
Miguel BaezaKO/TKO
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