METRICS GUIDE
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Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Curtis Blaydes carries a chin rating of 8.0 into a fight with a man who has knocked out three of his last four opponents.
Curtis Blaydes has been a top-ten heavyweight for the better part of a decade, and the way he leaves fights has always been the same: someone lands, and it is over. The model has stopped treating that as bad luck. His chin rating reads 8.0, which is not a comment on his skill but an arithmetic summary of what has happened to him — Tom Aspinall inside a minute in July 2024, Sergei Pavlovich in thre…
Cortes Acosta (17-3) has won three of his last four by knockout, including Derrick Lewis in the second round in January and Shamil Gaziev in 82 seconds in November 2025. Both defeats in his last five came on the cards against Pavlovich and Volkov, which is a meaningful distinction at 34: he has not been finished. His 94.0 chin rating and 100.0 momentum score are the strongest pairing in this bout.
Blaydes (19-6) has fought twice since July 2024, losing a decision to Josh Hokit in April and beating Rizvan Kuniev on the cards in June 2025. He is 35 and his chin rating of 8.0 is the consequence of first-round knockout losses to Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. His 42.3 quality-of-victory edges Cortes Acosta's 41.5 — the schedule has been harder.
An 8.0 chin rating against a man who has knocked out three of his last four opponents
Whether Blaydes shoots in the opening minute or tries to box behind five centimetres of reach
Cortes Acosta's 0.0 submission score and 0.84 wrestling — no off-ramp if he ends up underneath
Both men have lost to Sergei Pavlovich; Cortes Acosta heard the final horn, Blaydes did not
Blaydes has had one win in the last two years and it went to the judges
If Blaydes wrestles like the fighter who beat Jailton Almeida in March 2024, Cortes Acosta has nothing on the ground to answer with
Cortes Acosta's finish rate of 0.50 means half his wins have needed the judges; a cautious Blaydes could bank rounds from top position
This Fight — Statistics
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown