METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Houston, USA
21 Feb 2026
Welterweight
VS
95%
Smith
5%
Harrell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:01
★ Official Result
Jacobe SmithwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:01
def. Josiah Harrell · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Smith
→
Actual result
Smith wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Smith is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 77 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Risk flags
Harrell has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithHarrell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Harrell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
68"
30
Age
+27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Smith
Harrell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
81.7
4.5
74.4
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Smith
Harrell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
10.0
Style: Pressure
0.0
2.0
Style: Volume
0.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
1
9
Body
3
6
Leg
3
RangeRange
23Distance7
0Clinch0
10Ground0
Smith
Harrell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Harrell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/12 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Smith
Harrell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Smith
Harrell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Harrell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
SmithHarrell
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHarrell
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (55% of attacks) — Harrell absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Harrell targets the body (43% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Harrell
0/0R00/0
Smith · Last 5
Upcoming
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Josiah HarrellKO/TKO
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W · Sub · R2
Niko PriceSubmission
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Preston ParsonsKO/TKO
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Harrell · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Elves BrenerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09
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Jacobe SmithKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02