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Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Thicknesse has three UFC decisions and a 45.3 rating built on grinding out close rounds; Chopurov arrives 11-0 with no UFC file at all.
Only one man in this bantamweight bout has a file. Colby Thicknesse has three recorded UFC fights and a composite rating of 45.3; Asaf Chopurov has eleven professional wins, no defeats, and not a single UFC round for the model to read. That asymmetry is the fight, and any preview that pretends otherwise is guessing in a suit. Start with what is knowable. Thicknesse is 9-1 at 27, and the shape of …
Thicknesse (9-1) is 2-1 in the UFC, with decisions over Vince Morales in May and Josias Musasa last September either side of a decision loss to Aleksandre Topuria in February 2025. All three went the full three rounds; his finish rate is 0.0. At 27 his chin rates 98.0 and his fade index is a clean 100.0, but a 25.0 quality-of-victory marks the level he has beaten.
Chopurov (11-0) is 24 and arrives with no UFC fights recorded, which means no composite rating, no style scores and no durability read — the model has nothing on him. His height, reach and stance are not even on file. He is unbeaten as a professional and was signed off a UAE Warriors title run, but everything checkable about how he fights at this level is still to come.
Can Thicknesse make this his fourth straight fifteen-minute UFC fight, which is the only pattern his record has?
Does a 25.0 quality-of-victory mean anything against a debutant nobody has rated?
Thicknesse has never finished anyone — 0.0 finish rate — so does he have a route to victory that is not the judges' scorecards?
Chopurov has no height or reach on record: how much of this preview changes once there is a tale of the tape?
First fight outside Australia for Thicknesse against a man making his promotional debut — whose nerves cost more?
Chopurov has zero recorded fights, so the pick rests on an unbeaten record rather than any measured ability — if he is simply not ready for the level, this is wrong immediately.
Thicknesse's 98.0 chin and 100.0 fade index mean he is very hard to put away, and a debutant who cannot finish him is likely to lose rounds three to one.
Three rounds of UFC pacing experience against none is a real edge that no rating captures.
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown