METRICS GUIDE
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Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Fourteen months out and a nine-month doping suspension behind her, Lucindo returns against the one opponent on the card built to punish a fighter who has not had a hard round since August 2025.
Iasmin Lucindo is 24 years old, has twenty-four professional fights, and has not had one in fourteen months. The gap is not an injury and it is not a negotiation. On 24 September 2025 she gave a sample that returned positive for mesterolone, an anabolic steroid. CSAD accepted that she had taken it unintentionally — she attributed it to a contaminated supplement from a Brazilian pharmacy, cooperat…
Lucindo (18-6) is 24, Brazilian, and the better-established fighter at 53.8 with seven recorded UFC bouts and a 46.5 performance average. She has not fought since 9 August 2025, when she outpointed Angela Hill (36.1). The layoff is fourteen months and the reason is on record: a mesterolone positive from a sample collected 24 September 2025, for which CSAD imposed a nine-month suspension retroactive to that date, expiring 24 June 2026. CSAD accepted the substance was ingested unintentionally through a contaminated supplement and found no intent to gain an advantage. She had already pulled out of a December 2025 bout with Gillian Robertson with an undisclosed injury. Her game is volume — a 7.83 volume score, a 0.2 finish rate, three decisions among her last four wins — and her 96.0 chin reflects never having been stopped. The 29.9 quality-of-victory is the weak spot: her wins are over Hill (36.1), Marina Rodriguez (48.6), Kowalkiewicz (32.7) and Polyana Viana (40.1), and the only opponent above 50 she has faced, Amanda Lemos (55.2), beat her on points at UFC 313. Height 160.0cm, reach 167.6cm, orthodox.
Caliari (9-4) is 29, Brazilian, and rates 46.7 with a 40.3 performance average across three recorded UFC fights. She is 1-2, but the shape matters: both defeats came at flyweight — a decision to Ernesta Kareckaite (33.8) in January 2025, a third-round knockout by Carli Judice (71.6) at 1:30 in July 2025 — and her win came after dropping to strawweight, a submission of Shauna Bannon (45.4) at 3:08 of the third on 16 May. Her profile is all-or-nothing: 10.0 submission, 8.0 grappling, 5.6 wrestling, 8.0 pressure, a 100 per cent finish rate, and then 0.67 striking and 0.67 volume — the lowest figures in the bout. Her 76.0 chin comes from the Judice knockout. Momentum 34.7, held down by the two flyweight losses. Out five months. Height 160.0cm, reach 157.5cm, orthodox.
Lucindo has not fought since 9 August 2025 — fourteen months, including a nine-month CSAD suspension
The suspension was for mesterolone, backdated to a 24 September 2025 sample and expired 24 June 2026; CSAD accepted it was ingested unintentionally
Four inches of reach to Lucindo at identical heights: 167.6cm against 157.5cm
Caliari's 0.67 striking and 0.67 volume are the lowest figures in the bout — she ends fights or loses rounds
Caliari's 10.0 submission score and 100 per cent finish rate are the only live threat to a rusty opponent
Caliari's two UFC defeats came at flyweight; her one win came after dropping to strawweight
Lucindo's 29.9 quality-of-victory — the only opponent above 50 she has met, Amanda Lemos (55.2), beat her
The Bannon submission came at 3:08 of the third, so Caliari stays dangerous after losing rounds
Fourteen months without a competitive round is not priced into Lucindo's 53.8 composite
Caliari's submission game is precisely the threat a ring-rusty fighter is least equipped to handle
Lucindo's 0.2 finish rate means she cannot shorten the fight and must spend fifteen minutes in range of a grappler
Caliari has only three recorded UFC fights, and the two at flyweight may not describe her at strawweight at all
Lucindo's own form before the layoff included a loss to the one top-tier opponent she faced
Caliari has also been out five months, so neither fighter arrives sharp
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown