METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
A Canadian veteran with a chin rating of zero, six months removed from a 24-second knockout, takes a home-soil debut fight against a 15-2 Contender Series signing nobody has data on yet.
Kyle Nelson was knocked out in twenty-four seconds by Terrance McKinney in March. Six months later he has taken a fight in Edmonton against a man the UFC signed off Dana White's Contender Series and about whom the database knows nothing whatsoever. Both halves of that sentence matter, and neither is comfortable reading for the Canadian. Nelson's composite rating is 36.8, which is low for a fighte…
Nelson (17-7-1) is 2-3 in his last five and was stopped in twenty-four seconds by Terrance McKinney in March 2026 at UFC Seattle. He returned to lightweight in 2025 and is 1-1 in the division since. His quality-of-victory score of 39.0 reflects a career spent on the fringes of the rankings rather than inside them, and a finish rate of 0.40. The chin rating of 0.0 and fade index of 100.0 are the two numbers that define this booking.
Perez (15-2) is a UFC debutant. He signed after beating Logan Paxton on Dana White's Contender Series earlier in 2026, having previously fought for Combate Global and in Karate Combat. There is no recorded UFC data for him — no composite rating, no chin rating, no style scores — so nothing in this preview about his in-cage profile should be read as measured. At 27 he is eight years younger than Nelson and carries a 182.9cm reach against 180.3cm.
Nelson's 0.0 chin rating six months after a 24-second knockout loss
A fade index of 100.0 — the steepest decline reading the model produces
Perez has no UFC data at all, so every assessment of him is provisional
Nelson's grappling (1.44) and wrestling (1.01) leave no off-ramp if he is taken down
Debut nerves in a hostile Edmonton building against a veteran who makes fights ugly
The pick against Nelson rests on his numbers, not on any measured quality in Perez — treat the probability as soft
Contender Series records are built against uneven opposition; 15-2 outside the UFC is not a reliable guide to what happens inside it
Nelson's 5.71 volume has stolen close rounds before, and a nervous debutant is exactly the opponent that gets out-worked
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown