METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Tuchalov
43%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Magomed TuchalovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Brendson Ribeiro · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Tuchalov
→
Actual result
Tuchalov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Tuchalov at 57% vs Ribeiro at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Ribeiro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TuchalovRibeiro
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
+81"
26+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
45.5
55.0
Performance Avg
39.0
25
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
69
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
0.7
/ 10
3.0
Style: Pressure
5.7
10.0
Style: Volume
3.3
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
18
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/7 fights
Chin rating based on
9/28 fights
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
69
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tuchalov
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
TuchalovRibeiro
Strike Zones
Tuchalov
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tuchalov targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the head (75% of attacks) — Tuchalov absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tuchalov
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
Tuchalov · Last 1
W · Dec · R3
Brendson RibeiroDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
Ribeiro · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Felipe FrancoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
L · Dec · R3
Magomed TuchalovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
L · Sub · R1
Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Oumar SyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Azamat MurzakanovKO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06