METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Nashville, USA
22 Apr 2017
Flyweight
VS
25%
Ortiz
75%
Moreno
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:06
★ Official Result
Brandon MorenowinsSubmissionR2 · 4:06
def. Dustin Ortiz · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Moreno wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Moreno is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Moreno has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OrtizMoreno
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ortiz
Moreno
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
65"
Reach
+70"
37
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ortiz
Moreno
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
52.2
46.9
Performance Avg
52.2
40
Quality of Victory
45
45
Momentum Score
54
Ortiz
Moreno
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.1
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
4.8
5.1
Style: Volume
5.3
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
8
1
Body
4
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
9Distance9
0Clinch3
1Ground5
Ortiz
Moreno
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ortiz
Moreno
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
22/33 fights
Ortiz
Moreno
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
54
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Ortiz
Moreno
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
42%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ortiz
Moreno
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
OrtizMoreno
Strike Zones
Ortiz
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedMoreno
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ortiz targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Moreno targets the head (47% of attacks) — Ortiz absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ortiz
RND
Moreno
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ortiz · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
W · KO · R1
Matheus NicolauKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Alexandre PantojaDecision
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
W · KO · R1
Hector SandovalKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Brandon MorenoSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
Moreno · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Joseph MoralesDecision
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Lone'er KavanaghDecision
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L · KO · R2
Tatsuro TairaKO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03