METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
London, United Kingdom
22 Mar 2025
Lightweight
VS
40%
Herbert
60%
Padilla
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jai
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14 – 6
6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 49
Chris
Chris Padilla
"Taco"
17 – 6
Well-Rounded5-fight win streak31 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 72
★ Official Result
Chris PadillawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Jai Herbert · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Padilla
→
Actual result
Padilla wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

Padilla holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Herbert has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Herbert's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
HerbertPadilla
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herbert
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
77"+
Reach
74"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herbert
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.6
72.0
43.4
Performance Avg
64.8
39
Quality of Victory
41
74
Momentum Score
100
Herbert
Padilla
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.0
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
7.2
5.8
Style: Volume
3.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
11
9
Body
2
4
Leg
4
RangeRange
27Distance15
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Herbert
Padilla
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.7
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herbert
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/20 fights
Chin rating based on
6/23 fights
Herbert
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Herbert
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herbert
Padilla
Striking5.0 / 4.0Volume5.8 / 3.6Grappling1.4 / 3.7Wrestling1.0 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure4.3 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Herbert
Strike Zones
Padilla
Herbert
Attacking
15HEAD9BODY4LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY4LEGS17 absorbed
Padilla
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY4LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD9BODY4LEGS28 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herbert targets the head (54% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (65% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 65% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herbert
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0

Herbert · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Matheus Camilo
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · 2026-10
W · KO · R1
Mandel Nallo
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris Padilla
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando Bedoya
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares Ziam
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

Padilla · Last 5

W · Sub · R3
Nasrat Haqparast
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08
Upcoming
MarQuel Mederos
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R2
Ismael Bonfim
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jai Herbert
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · R2
Rongzhu
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09

News & Media

Jai Herbert · Chris Padilla
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