METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Eight inches of reach and thirteen years of mileage on one side; a 25-year-old who knocked out Nazim Sadykhov in ninety seconds on the other.
Jai Herbert has the longer arms, the longer career and the harder question to answer. At 38 he is giving away thirteen years to Matheus Camilo, and the one number that has followed him around the lightweight division is a chin rating of 40.0 — not catastrophic, but not the figure you want in front of a 25-year-old whose last outing was a first-round knockout. That knockout matters. Camilo stopped…
Camilo (10-3) is 2-1 in the UFC with three fights on record, the standout a 1:31 knockout of Nazim Sadykhov in June. His only defeat in the promotion is a second-round submission to Gabe Green in May 2025 — the one place he has been shown to be beatable. Quality-of-victory sits at 42.5, level with Herbert's, which is a genuine marker on three fights rather than nine.
Herbert (14-6-1) knocked out Mandel Nallo in 2:05 in April, his best result in some time after a decision loss to Chris Padilla in March 2025. Across nine recorded UFC fights his pattern is settled: four of his last five went the distance, three of those he won on the cards. He turns 38 before this one and has the lower composite (49.6) and the lower chin rating (40.0).
Herbert's eight-inch reach advantage against a pressure fighter who has to close it
An 88.0 chin rating against a 40.0 one, over three rounds
Camilo's 1:31 knockout of Nazim Sadykhov in June — the result that changed how he is rated
Thirteen years of age gap, with Herbert the older at 38
Camilo's submission loss to Gabe Green, the only proven hole in his game, against an opponent with no submission threat
Camilo has only three recorded UFC fights — 57.5 is a confident-looking composite built on a small sample
Herbert's knockout of Nallo showed real power, and Camilo has to spend the first round inside a reach he cannot match
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown