METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Vagaev's 60.8 rating is the higher of the two and rests on a single UFC fight; Malkoun's 54.2 comes from nine, three of them wins at this weight.
This is a middleweight bout between a 25-4 veteran the UFC has seen once and a 10-3 grinder it has seen nine times, and the ratings gap between them — 60.8 to 54.2 — is built on almost nothing. Abubakar Vagaev's 60.8 composite is the higher number and the least trustworthy one on the card. It comes off a single recorded UFC fight: a decision over Saygid Izagakhmaev in July. One result is enough t…
Vagaev (25-4) is 33 and has one recorded UFC fight: a three-round decision over Saygid Izagakhmaev in July. That single result drives a 60.8 composite, a 100.0 momentum score and a 100.0 chin rating, none of which should be read as settled. His 25.0 quality-of-victory is the lower of the two, his finish rate is 0.0, and this bout moves him up from the welterweight class his one UFC appearance was contested at.
Malkoun (10-3) is 31 and on a three-fight run: decisions over Gerald Meerschaert in May and Torrez Finney in January, after a second-round knockout of Andre Petroski in March 2024. All five of his recent bouts were at middleweight. His 97.5 momentum is near the ceiling, his 30.0 quality-of-victory leads, and the first-round loss to Cody Brundage in September 2023 is what holds his chin rating down to 74.0.
Vagaev's 60.8 composite comes from one fight — does a single decision over Izagakhmaev tell you anything about a middleweight?
Malkoun has won his last three at 185 while Vagaev's only UFC bout was at 170: how much does the ten pounds matter?
Neither man has a submission score above 0.0, so who wins the positional rounds?
Malkoun's 74.0 chin against a man whose power at middleweight is entirely unrecorded.
Reach is identical at 185.4cm — does Vagaev's five-centimetre height edge convert to anything?
If Vagaev's 25-4 record and ACA welterweight title run translate cleanly, the 60.8 composite is right and the nine-fight sample argument collapses.
Malkoun's 74.0 chin rating is the lowest durability number in this bout, and he has been stopped inside a round before.
Vagaev carries the grappling and wrestling edge on paper; if he controls the clinch, Malkoun's recent decisions suggest he has no finishing answer.
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown