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Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Six inches of reach against a 44.0 chin: Oki drops to featherweight carrying the longest arms in the bout and the most fragile record of being hit.
Bolaji Oki arrives at featherweight for the first time on record, and he arrives needing the win. All five of his recorded UFC appearances came at lightweight, and the last two ended with him on the floor: Manoel Sousa knocked him out at 4:12 of the third in March, and Mason Jones stopped him at 3:18 of the second in September 2025. Heavy reported the move down on 29 September. A third straight lo…
Oki (10-4) is 30, Belgian, and drops to featherweight for the first time on record — all five of his recorded UFC fights were at lightweight. Composite 31.1 with a performance average of 31.0, so the rating is stable rather than recency-driven. The number that governs the fight is his 44.0 chin: he has been stopped three times in his last five, by Manoel Sousa (69.6) by knockout at 4:12 of the third in March, by Mason Jones (45.8) by knockout at 3:18 of the second in September 2025, and by Chris Duncan (60.4) by submission at 3:34 of the first in September 2024. His two wins — Michael Aswell Jr. (48.3), Timmy Cuamba (46.5) — were both three-round decisions, hence a 0.0 finish rate and a 25.0 quality-of-victory. His 8.8 volume score is the highest figure in the bout, but a 0.8 striking score says that volume has not been doing damage. Out since 14 March. Reach 185.4cm, height 177.8cm, orthodox.
Santos (14-3) is 31, Brazilian, and the higher-rated man at 55.6 with a 50.7 performance average. His 40.0 quality-of-victory reads low for what he has actually done: he knocked out JooSang Yoo (54.9) in 21 seconds in October 2025 and outpointed JeongYeong Lee (56.2) in May 2025, and the figure is held down by a 2023 decision over Johnny Munoz (29.3). His single recent defeat is a knockout loss to Dooho Choi (67.1) at 4:29 of the second on 16 May, which is where the 76.0 chin comes from. Finish rate 50 per cent, striking 6.33, pressure 5.5. His career has been repeatedly interrupted — nearly two and a half years out before his UFC debut through injuries and COVID cancellations, one fight across 2023 and 2024 — and he has been out five months since the Choi fight. Height 170.2cm, reach 170.2cm, orthodox.
Oki's 44.0 chin against Santos's 50 per cent finish rate is the fight in one line
Oki has been stopped in three of his last five — first round, second and third, all by different methods
Six inches of reach to Oki: 185.4cm against 170.2cm, plus 7.6cm of height
Oki's 8.8 volume is the highest figure in the bout, but his 0.8 striking score says it is not hurting anyone
Oki drops to featherweight for the first time on record after five recorded lightweight fights
Santos's 40.0 quality-of-victory undersells him — he beat JooSang Yoo (54.9) in 21 seconds and JeongYeong Lee (56.2) on points
The only man rated above 60 to face Santos is Dooho Choi (67.1), who stopped him in the second
Neither fighter has a submission score above 0.0; the floor is unexplored territory for both
Six inches of reach is a genuine equaliser and Oki has already won two decisions at range
Santos has been out five months and his career is a series of interrupted camps — his sharpness is a real unknown
Oki's 0.0 finish rate means he cannot end this early; he needs all fifteen minutes to go his way
Santos's own 76.0 chin was cracked by the one powerful opponent he met
Oki is fighting at a new weight for the first time on record, so his cardio and power at featherweight are unmeasured
A seven-month layoff on Oki's side after two knockout defeats is the kind of history that does not show up in a rating
This Fight — Statistics
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown